04.03.2026 Al Jazeera Opinion: Iran after Khamenei — The Risks of a Violent Rupture

In a new Al Jazeera Opinion, Professor Mohammad Reza Farzanegan argues that external intervention in Iran is unlikely to produce the swift and stable regime change some expect.

On 1 March 2026, Professor Mohammad Reza Farzanegan published an Opinion in Al Jazeera examining the political and institutional implications of Iran after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The article challenges the assumption that removing a central figurehead will automatically trigger a short and decisive transition. Drawing on comparative evidence from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, it cautions that external military interventions often generate prolonged instability rather than rapid stabilisation.

At the same time, the piece highlights Iran’s distinct institutional and socio-religious dynamics. The potential consolidation of nationalist sentiment, the resilience of bureaucratic structures, and the cohesion of security forces will be critical in shaping the country’s trajectory. If institutional continuity fails, however, risks of fragmentation, elite conflict, and long-term insecurity could increase significantly.

Read the full Opinion here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/1/iran-after-ayatollah-ali-khamenei